Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by almost 3 million and still lost.

If Kamala wins the popular vote, how much does she have to win by to flip

the electoral college to her side?

Does it matter what states she wins in if the margins are low?

  • stinerman [Ohio]English
    22•5 months ago

    This will help you a bit to answer your own question: https://www.270towin.com/ You can play with scenarios there.

    how much does she have to win by to flip the electoral college to her side?

    This misunderstands how our elections work. If you win a state by one vote (offer not valid in Nebraska and Maine), you get all that state’s electoral votes. If you flip several thousand votes in a few states, Trump wins the 2020 election even though Biden had around 7,000,000 more in the popular vote total. Also, if you’re from the UK, Americans are a little idiosyncratic in their voting. A good deal of people do the equivalent of voting for a Tory even if they wanted Labour in power. It’s called vote splitting, and it’s generally a terrible idea.

    • kersploosh
      13•5 months ago

      If you win a state by one vote (offer not valid in Nebraska and Maine), you get all that state’s electoral votes.

      I’m going to pile on to your good answer.

      Since you only need 51% to win all of a state’s electoral votes, any additional votes beyond 51% could be considered excess votes that are not helpful. The system rewards candidates whose supporters are spread around, and punishes candidates whose supporters are heavily concentrated in a handful of states.

      For example, in 2016 Hilary Clinton got 4,269,978 more votes in California than Trump. That’s 4,269,977 more than she needed to win the state. Meanwhile, she lost Michigan by 10,704 votes, lost Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes, lost Florida by 112,912, etc. Hell, she lost Texas by less than a million votes. If Hilary’s supporters in California had been spread around in other states she would have won the national election easily.

      • Dark ArcEnglish
        4•5 months ago

        If Hilary’s supporters in California had been spread around in other states she would have won the national election easily.

        This is part of why I haven’t left Ohio, have beat back on the argument that “I should just move [to somewhere that’s more politically aligned with my beliefs]” (which I’ve heard that line enough, I fully believe it’s a GOP driven talking point), and I’ve encouraged other left-leaning folks to stay or come back.

    • @JusticeForPorygon@lemmy.world
      1•5 months ago

      I believe this is the last election where Maine will have split electoral votes, since they joined the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact earlier this year.

      • Dark ArcEnglish
        0•5 months ago

        National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

        That doesn’t do anything until it has enough states that it actually guarantees the person that wins the popular vote, wins.